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Scott Rolen made his major-league debut with the Phillies in 1996, and through his long career has posted a long string of solid seasons punctuated by flashes of something more brilliant. There was his 1998 .290 average with 120 runs, 110 RBI, 31 home runs, and 14 stolen bases; then, in St. Louis in 2004, he posted a .314 average with 109 runs, 124 RBI, 34 home runs, and a .409 OBP with a 1.007 OPS. Then there's this year, which differs in its low power numbers and its astounding .332 average to last Wednesday.
For a lot of fantasy owners, closers are more of an afterthought. Many do not believe in drafting a closer early, especially with the volatility of the position. Injuries and inability have a wide-ranging affect, causing numerous diamonds in the rough to present themselves.
This season is no exception, with names like David Aardsma and Ryan Franklin emerging as must-start fantasy options. The real question, as the calendar turns to July, is which pitcher has a better chance of producing from here on out.
What would be the best way to classify Alex Rios? He is an easy mark due to a recent 7 for 46 slide and NSFW YouTube moment, but he has not lived up to expectations at any point this year. He is not a true bust or post-hype prospect because he has delivered some very useful seasons. He is not a flash in the pan either, his three seasons before this one were very strong. What we have in Rios is a 28 year old player in his sixth season who is regressing from his peak and threatening to never fully deliver on the 30-30-.300 potential that so many fantasy players drafted him for.
The son of Doug Drabek, the 1990 NL Cy Young Award winner, there’s no questioning the pedigree of Kyle Drabek. Now, with the Phillies' seemingly dire need for help in the starting rotation, an opportunity may present itself sooner then anyone anticipated.
Juan Rivera was signed by the Yankees as an amateur free agent in 1996, and would stay with their organization through their 2003 World Series appearance, after which he was traded to the Expos as part of a package of players that brought Javier Vazquez to the Yankees. Rivera would only spend one season with the Expos (who expired at the end of 2004 anyway) before being traded to the Angels before the start of the 2005 season.
Despite being drafted like a top 25 starting pitcher, six weeks of awful results strained and even broke the patience of many fantasy owners. Ricky Nolasco's supporters focused on his high BABIP against and low strand rate as reasons for hope going forward and they are now being rewarded. In four outings since being recalled, he has three quality starts and one rain shortened win. He looks safe to start going forward. Third base is a position experiencing significant turnover in the past week, a trend that will likely continue with Adrian Beltre heading for the operating room.
This week we take another monthly look at pitcher strand rate and we continue to see some familiar names on this list. It looks like it might take another month or so for the leaders to regress to just below 80%, which is typically the level the end of season leader finishes at.
Name
LOB%
K/9
BB/9
ERA
Matt Cain
86.7%
7.5
3.6
2.57
Kevin Millwood
85.9%
5.6
2.9
2.64
Dan Haren
84.5%
8.7
1.2
2.25
Yovani Gallardo
83.7%
9.4
4.1
2.86
Jered Weaver
82.8%
7.3
2.8
2.65
Cliff Lee
80.9%
6.4
2.1
2.92
Ted Lilly
80.6%
7.5
1.9
3.41
Rick Porcello
79.9%
5.0
3.1
3.55
Max Scherzer
79.6%
9.2
3.7
3.53
Johnny Cueto
79.4%
6.5
2.6
2.86
Matt Cain- He has been here for a while, but he has pitched almost identically as in his last two seasons, yet his ERA is more than a full run lower. His strand rate is the explanation and it will not last. If anyone tries to argue that Cain has suddenly figured it all out or some other nonsense, just nod your head in agreement, resisting the urge to start an unwinnable argument. I hate those.
Kevin Millwood- Still?! Wake me up when Millwood's ERA is over 3.00. I cannot believe how long he has been able to sustain such a ridiculous ERA given this massively mediocre skill set. His K/BB ratio is below 2:1 and he isn't even a ground ball pitcher! What is the world coming to??
Dan Haren- The only difference between this year and last year is even better control than his already excellent command. He should regress some in the second half, and then you will hear from all the talking heads about his annual second half meltdown. No, his luck simply ran out.
Yovani Gallardo- He is walking over 4.0 batters per nine and he has been just a slight ground ball pitcher, yet he has a sub-3.00 ERA. In addition to the high strand rate, his BABIP is just .251. If that strikeout rate slips at all, he could easily post an ERA close to 4.00 in the second half. Even if it doesn't, I would bet his ERA is much closer to 4.00 than 3.00.
Jered Weaver- His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates are all worse than last year, yet his ERA is nearly 1.7 runs lower! Insane. It looks like everyone in my league has read the same sell-high columns highlighting Weaver's name though, because I have unfortunately been unable to trade him.
Cliff Lee- His strikeout rate has slipped from last season and his walk rate is more sustainable this year, as expected. However, he has been able to hold onto his ground ball rate gain from last season. That really is the only positive though. His skill set looks more like a 4.00 ERA pitcher than a 3.00 ERA guy, but once again he has benefited from some excellent luck.
Ted Lilly- Still waiting for his ERA to approach 4.00, and given all those fly balls, it should not take too long. If his .268 BABIP rises, those home runs are going to become more than just solo shots and fantasy owners will be none too pleased.
Rick Porcello- Pretty amazing performance so far from a guy who has never pitched above High-A ball. However, the only positive here has been his excellent ground ball rate, which sits at 57%. However, he is mixing in just average control with a poor strikeout rate and his short minor league track record does not inspire much confidence that he could up that K/9. I would not be comfortable with him on my active roster in the second half.
Max Scherzer- He is one of the few guys here that owners should hold. His high LOB% is offset by a .327 BABIP and all his skill metrics look sustainable.
Johnny Cueto- Huge drop in strikeout rate raises a red flag, but at least he has offset that with improved control. I would prefer the higher strikeout guy with the worse control as it will typically lead to a lower ERA, but also higher fantasy value. Either way, this is not a skill set of a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher and probably not a sub-4.00.
Name
LOB%
K/9
BB/9
ERA
Carl Pavano
60.4%
6.5
1.9
5.80
Andy Sonnanstine
62.3%
5.5
2.4
6.61
Jorge de la Rosa
63.2%
9.6
4.2
5.64
Scott Baker
63.8%
7.6
1.7
5.17
Joel Pineiro
64.1%
3.9
1.2
3.40
Derek Lowe
64.1%
4.8
3.0
4.53
Brian Bannister
64.5%
5.5
2.9
4.17
Mike Pelfrey
66.3%
4.1
3.2
4.67
Kyle Davies
66.7%
6.1
4.6
5.76
Brad Penny
66.8%
6.2
3.2
4.93
Carl Pavano- A ridiculous .350 BABIP has contributed to this low strand rate and I wonder if his shoulder problem also played a role. His skill set looks real solid though and if we knew he was healthy, he could provide some mixed league value the rest of the way. In fact, I did have him on both of my mixed league teams, but of course it was bad timing as it was just before his string of disasters. I am going to take a wait-and-see approach at the moment.
Andy Sonannstine- Sonnanstine gets demoted due to some bad luck, as he really wasn't pitching much worse than last season, besides worse, but still decent, control. Unfortunately, even Sonny at his best has limited value in mixed leagues.
Jorge de la Rosa- Did you know that de la Rosa's skill set is almost identical to Yovani Gallardo's? It's pretty amazing to me that a guy could have a 5.64 ERA while posting a 9.6 K/9, but that is exactly what he is doing. Even if you accuse me of being strictly a numbers guy and ignoring the scouting side of pitching, well de la Rosa shines there too. I have watched a couple of his starts and his stuff looks pretty darn good to me. And I have just as much scout training as 99% of the fantasy playing population that call themselves scouts (NONE!). He could have some mixed league value the rest of the season.
Scott Baker- He is pitching even better than last year with a slightly higher strikeout rate, and even better control. However, last year his LOB% was 78.7%, this year it is just 63.8%. Last year his HR/FB ratio was just 8.5%, this year it is 14.3%. His velocity is fine and no mention of the shoulder issues that caused him to miss the beginning of the season.
Joel Pineiro- Possibly one of the most mysterious transformations I have ever seen. Pineiro has become Chien-Ming Wang (the good Wang), with better control. His strikeout rate is frighteningly low, but he has suddenly turned himself into a ground ball inducing machine. He had always been slightly above average, but had never exceeded a 49% ground ball rate until this season, where he has induced a 61% rate. I have no idea how long this will continue, but I do know that his 2.9% HR/FB ratio won't last and it is doubtful that impeccable control will either. I wouldn't touch him in a mixed league.
Derek Lowe- What the heck is going on with Lowe?! His strikeout rate is at the lowest mark of his career, and his walk rate is at the worst level since 2004. Heck, even his ground ball rate is down a bit. Lowe has never garnered much respect from fantasy owners meaning it might be easy to acquire him from a disgruntled owner, but I am getting a little worried myself, as a Braves fan and owner in the NL-Only Blogger's League. I will simply be sitting tight, hoping it is just a three-month fluke and he turns things around given his long track record.
Brian Bannister- Compare Bannister and Millwood's K/9 and BB/9. They are nearly identical! I don't know what I am really saying, but I just don't feel like talking about Bannister. He is boring. Thoroughly mediocre, but a strong Razzball player!
Mike Pelfrey- His strikeout rate is down for a second straight year, and it only began at 5.6! A 4.1 K/9 is downright scary from a guy who has only average control. It's nice that his ground ball rate is up to 54%, but that is just not good enough to offset such a terrible strikeout rate and mediocre control.
Kyle Davies- Remember when he got some breakout hype and began the year with just a 2.89 ERA after three starts? That is surely a distant memory and he now finds himself in the minors while the Royals look as if a clueless 10 year old were running the team (Bruce Chen?!?!). I have no idea where the breakout hype came from, but this guy has never posted even decent skills in the majors or the minors in recent years.
Brad Penny- The only real difference between the Penny of now and the Penny of old is that he has allowed more fly balls than ever before, but not an inordinate amount. I still say he could be a solid addition for a playoff contending team in real baseball, but he is not going to provide any mixed league value.
A common debate among fantasy owners is the value of stashing highly touted prospects. Prior to this season owners scurried to get Matt Wieters or David Price, despite the fact that both were ticketed for Triple-A. Even now, you see a handful of owners having Clay Buchholz, Matt LaPorta or Travis Snider tucked away, just in case they can return to the major leagues and make an impact in 2009.
Recently in a high stakes league I was trying to negotiate a deal for Brad Lidge. Much to my dismay, the opposing owner demanded Hunter Pence (!). After much negotiation, no deal materialized, as he valued Lidge far too highly for my taste. Why is it that owners cannot see the flaws in their players? Why do they overvalue their own players and undervalue others?
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