So, you’ve probably heard it before, but it doesn’t mean you listened: don’t arrive at your draft or auction with too many materials.  Our resident Editor-in-Chief made a great point about it here, recommending you bring a few lists (certainly your tiers), but not much else to draft day. 

And the point is well taken.  Why sabotage your natural intuition, fantasy knowledge and vast experience with an avalanche of paper (or websites)? Or worse, let that last unsubstantiated factoid from some dubious source stick in your head like some unwelcome tick?

You shouldn’t.  And besides, that’s gross.

Lists are graphically organized for quick consumption, and that’s what you need when an unusual starting pitcher run just hit in the 2^nd round.  (Weirdos.)  A few lists, which I recommend and could be of use on auction day, include, but are not limited to:

-Positional tiers

-Recent ADP or AAV of your top 300 players

-Access to current team depth charts

-List of projected closers for each MLB team

-Projected high performers in the following categories: SB, HR, K, and SV.

For your statistical digestion, then, Call to the Pen has brings you a super-hybrid mix of three such lists this week:  Positional tiers, Projected Closers, and ADP, all rolled into one.

I call it the Closernator 3000, probably because my son watches too much Phineas and Ferb.   But you don’t have to.

The tiers are based on as a strange Italian derivative of Mike Podhorzer’s 2010 projections and should bear no reflection on his abilities as a prognosticator.  

Round equivalents for each ADP (according to mockdraftcentral.com circa 3/16/10), are presented for your viewing pleasure, because that’s way more useful to me than an ADP. Personal preference. 

A little analysis, for you to read and then dispose of before draft day, follows.  Hope it’s helpful.

Notably missing from this list are the following:  F. Rodney at 227, M. Lindstrom at 264.3, J. Howell at 277.2, J. Nathan at 296, M. Thornton at 307.7, and R. Madson at 317.4. 

Analysis:  The values lie in the discrepancies here, and there are many.  To highlight a few, several of which I’ve been pitching all preseason:

Good Values:

*Chad Qualls is a top 10 closer capable of being drafted in the 16^th round.  I've got this guy in like every league.

*Octavio Dotel is very nearly a top 20 closer available in the 22^nd round. Bot-tom Feed!  Bot-tom Feed!

*The possibly injured Huston Street (shoulder inflammation) may be a top 4 closer still available in the 12^th round, but I tend to pass on that anyway.

*Mike Gonzalez, the 12^th ranked reliever, available in the 16^th round could be a bargain on an improving (?) Orioles squad.

Crummy Values:

*Brian Fuentes might be going a bit too early in the  9^th round for a lowly Tier 5 closer.  (see Rodney at 227)

*David Aardsma is the 23^rd ranked closer, but is going in the 13 round.  Not a good buy, unless all the anti-hype makes him a late sleeper eventually.

*Ryan Franklin surely won’t be worth 12^th round value if he’s killing you in ERA and WHIP. And chance are he will, so let somebody else draft him.

What do you think?  What bargains are you finding out of the bullpen on draft day?  Do you have an update for me on Houston Street’s arm?  Sharing is caring, so please, don’t hold back.

Well, I might be getting a bit ahead of myself here, but I doubt it. The breaking news heard far and wide yesterday stated that top-tier closer Joe Nathan has a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament and may require Tommy John Surgery. Rather than wait for the unlikely news that Nathan will play through the pain, let’s get ahead of the curve and see who might be the most likely choice as heir to the closer throne in Minnesota, probably for the next 12-18 months.

Jon Rauch has a history of success as a middle reliever: a lifetime 3.79 ERA, respectable 7.36 K/9, and a palatable 1.23 WHIP. He even has a bit of experience closing 18 games during the 2008 season for the Nationals and Diamondbacks. Nothing about his numbers shouts dominant, but nothing says he couldn’t maintain the job without too much trouble either. A stingy 1.89 BB/9 last year and that marginal experience in the hot seat seems to suggest he’s probably the guy to beat for the job.

But alas, he does have some competition. Long-time Twin (well, six years anyway) Matt Guerrier is another middle reliever who has made a name for himself as a reliable option out of the pen. With an impressive lifetime ERA of 3.41, decent lifetime WHIP of 1.27, and lackluster 6.01 K/9 for his career, we’re talking about two similarly competent profiles and but neither truly shouting “Give me the ball!”

Which leads us to our last option…Pat Neshek. Here’s a guy whose lifetime K/rate (10.59!), WHIP (.96) and ERA (2.91) do fit the profile of a traditional closer. The problem…he hasn’t pitched since 2008, thanks to a bit of Tommy John Surgery himself. (I’m not sure you can have a “bit” of TJS, actually, but you get what I mean.) Still, the guy was downright nasty before his injury, relying on a plus slider more often than his meager fastball with excellent results, and if the urban legends about TJS are true: he might be even more of a weapon upon his return.  

Best Bet: I think Jon Rauch gets the gig out of the gate based on his experience, but I foresee at least some trouble and love Neshek to get a look based on his skills alone. There’s also the off chance the Twins go outside the organization and grab a guy like Heath Bell from the Padres, who reportedly have him on the market and are looking to groom Luke Gregerson for the role. I wouldn’t mind that one lick since I have Heath Bar in my keeper league at $5 and don’t want to lose him to a setup role mid-year.

It’s hard to call this competition a battle, when the arms involved being what they are.  Perhaps a “dispute” would be more apropos. Still, the Astros signed both relievers in hopes of corralling quantity, if not necessarily quality, and once that all gets settled, one of these players is sure to have mixed league value. So, let’s take a look at the numbers and see who deserves the job.

Brandon Lyon had an untenable .229 BABIP last year, which had just about everything to do with his impressive 2.86 ERA, way lower than both his lifetime marks. Chances are both will regress towards career means (.305 BABIP, 4.20 ERA) giving you a line something like what Mike Podhorzer projects: 

Enter Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon’s 2009 doppleganger. Closing games part-time for the Marlins last year, Lindstrom had an offensive 5.89 ERA in 2009, due in large part to a hefty .342 BABIP. Assuming regressions to career averages in these areas (3.88 ERA, .332 BABIP), Podhorzer’s projection again looks reasonable… 

Best Bet: You’d better handcuff these guys to each other with a couple of late picks in a draft if you want to get your money’s worth, and even then, there’s no guarantee Houston is going to provide that many wins anyway. 

These players are ranked 34^th and 35^th (Lyon and Lindstrom, respectively) on our site rankings and that sounds just about right. Did I mention how much I like Chad Qualls and Octavio Dotel?

Thanks for reading. And remember this mantra as you prepare for your fantasy drafts, “I’m NOT gonna pay a lot for this closer.”  It will serve you well.

Personally, I treat all relievers like the three category players they are: secondary, nay, tertiary to the four- and five-category players that smart fantasy players should really covet. Certainly I’ve heard of those closer-lovers who are quick to spend an early pick or thirty plus dollars at auction on the steadfast reliability of one Joe Nathan. But that’s not me. 

And yet, here I find myself writing the Call to the Pen column, all prepared to give sage advice on which relievers to take (and when) to those preparing for the 2010 season. Is this what one calls “ironic?” I think so.

Stuck in the Middle…of Mardi Gras!

Last week Brian Joura shared with us his adventure attending his first (and hopefully not last) Super Bowl. This week, I’ll be sharing a Marge Schott-load of useful skill-based stats for evaluating middle relievers, in simple easy-to-read spreadsheet format, and not much else.

Why the skeletal approach from such a historically verbose writer, you ask? Good question staff-writer Greg Marta! The reason is, I’m at freaking MARDI GRAS!!!

The Blue Jays, apparently not satisfied with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor competing for the closer role in Toronto, signed relief pitcher Kevin Gregg last week, perplexing fantasy GMs the world round. 

“How will I know which Jays reliever to pick first in the 20^th round of my mixed-league draft?” groaned one Boris Kilpatrick from South Koala, Australia.

Well, I can’t answer that question for you Boris, but I can tell you this. Kevin Gregg is an enigma wrapped in a Vegemite sandwich, and best left for very late picks in drafts.

Okay, so let’s face it: fantasy ballers tend either to idolize or eschew the greatness of A’s manager Billy Beane.  Basically it comes down to personality.  If you’re the reverent sort, you’re impressed with his attention to statistical detail and willingness to review old notions of scouting in favor of modern metrics.  More likely, you wanna be just like him, probably seeing your own fantasy baseball management finesse as comparable to his.  Why not?  You've probably won as many championships as he has.

There are umpteen ways to evaluate the worth of a reliever as you plan to draft a winning fantasy team for the ’10 season. Greenhorns will look merely at Save totals from last season while sabermetricians will scour groundball rates, pitch velocity, and park factors. 

Jose Valverde, the last, best closer option on the free agent market, has reportedly received four offers from teams that want him to be their closer. Ranked eighth overall among mixed-league relievers by FP911, and third in NL-only leagues, Valverde is a coveted reliever who has had consistent success in the closer role.