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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 12 March 2010 01:13 |
 In the last two weeks, I compared my top 500 rankings to the ADP available at Mock Draft Central to determine who is most undervalued. This week I begin looking at those hitters who are overvalued. Next week I will analyze the pitching side of the ledger.
| Rank |
ADP |
Diff |
Player |
Position |
AB |
BA |
HR |
RBI |
RUN |
SB |
$$ Value |
| 231 |
113 |
118 |
Drew,Stephen |
SS |
575 |
0.277 |
16 |
65 |
85 |
5 |
2.85 |
| 260 |
157 |
103 |
Davis,Rajai |
OF |
450 |
0.271 |
4 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
1.37 |
| 223 |
126 |
97 |
Stewart,Ian |
2B |
500 |
0.252 |
27 |
75 |
75 |
7 |
3.32 |
| 189 |
113 |
76 |
Hawpe,Brad |
OF |
500 |
0.283 |
24 |
85 |
80 |
1 |
5.66 |
| 192 |
117 |
75 |
Kubel,Jason |
OF |
525 |
0.281 |
25 |
90 |
75 |
1 |
5.40 |
| 165 |
90 |
75 |
Beltran,Carlos |
OF |
450 |
0.281 |
19 |
75 |
80 |
15 |
7.83 |
| 168 |
94 |
74 |
Ibanez,Raul |
OF |
575 |
0.277 |
24 |
95 |
85 |
2 |
7.64 |
| 270 |
200 |
70 |
Scutaro,Marco |
SS |
550 |
0.273 |
10 |
65 |
85 |
8 |
0.75 |
| 199 |
129 |
70 |
Furcal,Rafael |
SS |
600 |
0.282 |
11 |
50 |
90 |
15 |
4.98 |
| 173 |
107 |
66 |
Ramirez,Alexei |
SS |
550 |
0.278 |
18 |
75 |
75 |
15 |
7.45 |
Stephen Drew- Please help me understand this one. Are fantasy owners completely disregarding last year, thinking that was the fluke and 2008 represented his true talent level? Have we already forgotten that he has posted a similar disappointing season in the past in 2007? He barely steals bases at a middle infield slot where you typically need speed and his power dropped off last year, while he hasn't shown the ability to maintain an above average BABIP. Fantasy owners basically need Drew to repeat his 2008 performance just to break even. That seems like a bad way to spend a draft pick to me.
Rajai Davis- I am still not convinced his offense will be enough to keep him in the lineup, despite the fact that he looks excellent defensively. The trade of Scott Hairston helps his playing time outlook and it is possible that by the end of spring training I will cave and raise his at-bat projection. But this is a hitter who rarely walks, was boosted by a .361 BABIP, compared to a .329 career mark, and has no power. Playing for a weak offense will hurt his RBI and run totals, so he is the epitome of a one-category fantasy contributor.
Ian Stewart- I keep hearing about his sleeper status, which is funny considering he is appearing on this overvalued list. I guess when everyone labels the same player a sleeper, he no longer is one. Yes, he has excellent power and his skill set looks eerily similar to Mark Reynolds. But he is a lefty who was awful against them last year, and the Rockies brought in Melvin Mora who could very well platoon with Stewart, even though Mora struggled against lefties last year as well. Batting average also remains a category, and simply put, Stewart will almost assuredly hurt you there. So he will kill you in average, while probably not accumulating enough at-bats to put up huge counting stats. He does qualify at second base, and it is always exciting to get some power at the position, but remember that the tradeoff is less speed.
Brad Hawpe- Hawpe's career high at-bat total is only 516 because he never faces lefties. That alone is going to put a ceiling on his counting stats, ensuring he remains in the mid-20 range in the home run department. That is basically all there is to say about Hawpe. If he received 600 at-bats during a full, healthy season, and we simply prorated his stats, he would be a 30/100 guy and he would absolutely earn his ADP. But he isn't and never will be, so I have no idea what fantasy owners are looking at.
Jason Kubel- HR/FB ratio jumped from 10.7% in 2007 to 13% in 2008 to 16.3% in 2009. Talk about growth. But is that sustainable? I assume a bit of regression, plus a decline in his BABIP is it reached .327 last season compared with just a .305 career mark. He is unlikely to hit .300 again as a result. He doesn't steal bases anymore and he sits versus lefties. In fact, he looks to be the AL's version of Brad Hawpe! Nearly identical projections and ADPs. Fantasy owners apparently love their righty-bashing/lefty-sitting/ non-stealing/poor fielding/power-hitting outfielders.
Carlos Beltran- This is simply a playing time issue. Maybe mock drafters are being more aggressive because it doesn't count or they expect him to receive more at-bats than I am projecting. I cannot really envision a scenario where it would be worth drafting Beltran as it does not seem like you will be able to get him at any reasonable discount to be worth the considerable risk.
Raul Ibanez- No surprise here coming off his career year at the plate, based on wOBA. No one expects him to come anywhere close to repeating his 21.1% HR/FB ratio in 2010, do they? Oh, some mock drafters do? Ibanez will be 38 years old this year, you have to think that whatever took over his body in 2009 has departed by now and we'll see the Ibanez from 2007 and 2008 that we thought we would be getting last year.
Marco Scutato- Another hitter coming off a career year, but at least Ibanez has been good in the past. Scutaro has been pretty weak offensively throughout his career, then suddenly learned how to hit last season. Much of the difference was that he suddenly hit a ton more fly balls, which boosted his home run output and he increased his stolen base rate. The power will likely drop a bit as his fly ball rate regresses, taking his batting average along with it. He also will be hitting at the bottom of the Red Sox order, so he will not be scoring 100 runs again. He is a last resort middle infield option, nothing more.
Rafael Furcal- Man, and to think I used to be such a Furcal fan. I guess his name still carries value, despite it seeming quite obvious that injuries have ruined his skills. It does not seem like the speed will be returning anytime soon, and without the steals he used to provide, he is not much better than Orlando Cabrera, whose ADP is a more reasonable 180.
Alexei Ramirez- No idea what fantasy owners are expecting here. His power really dropped off last year, despite a nice jump in his walk rate.
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Last Updated ( Friday, 12 March 2010 21:55 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 05 March 2010 00:30 |
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Last week, I compared my top 500 rankings with the ADPs available from Mock Draft Central to determine which players were most undervalued. I neglected to include catchers and starting pitchers because those two positions are sometimes drafted using distinct strategies by fantasy owners. I thought it would be more useful to simply compare rankings within the position, rather than versus every position. The following lists will only include players that make my top 276, or the number of players that would start in a standard 12-team mixed league.
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Last Updated ( Saturday, 06 March 2010 18:40 )
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Read more...
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Monday, 01 March 2010 23:41 |
The Internet's ONLY interactive fantasy baseball projections are now available for download into Excel. Please read the user guide carefully before diving into the spreadsheet, as it gives a full explanation of exactly how to use the sheet properly. Enjoy!
Interactive Projections User Guide
Interactive Projections
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 02 March 2010 07:16 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 26 February 2010 15:16 |
Finally, it is the moment many of you have been waiting for. It is now time for a comparison of my top 500 rankings to the average draft position list on Mock Draft Central. Before diving in though, it is important to realize that the default rankings on each site heavily influence the ADPs from that site. It is difficult to continually stare at the same name at the top of the rankings even if you personally do not have that player at the top. It is easy to second guess yourself and therefore ADPs could and do differ dramatically between sites. If your league drafts live, the draft order could be even further off.
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 07 March 2010 21:06 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 19 February 2010 13:25 |
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HitTracker is a recent innovation, a web site that launched in 2006 by Greg Rybarczyk with the goal of plotting every home run hit, along with its actual distance, “standard” distance and the speed of the ball when it is hit off the bat. The “standard” distance removes any atmospheric effects from the ball’s flight so we could better compare home runs. You could think of it as the equivalent of expected ERA metrics that filter out influences outside the pitcher’s control. The site also breaks down each home run into three types: “Just Enough” (JE), “Plenty” (PL) and “No Doubt” (ND), based on the actual distance the ball travelled in the park the home run was hit.
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Last Updated ( Friday, 19 February 2010 17:12 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 12 February 2010 01:34 |
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Stephen Strasburg is the best pitching prospect to come along in years. Unfortunately, he has yet to throw a pitch at the minor league level. The only body of work we have for him besides his college career is his short stint in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). You may have noticed that I actually do have a projection for Strasburg. So do several other projection systems, which we will talk about later in this article. The question you must be asking is how the heck did I come up with a projection for a player with almost no professional experience? Well let me try to answer that with the caveat that his projection is 99% art and 1% science, which is unlike nearly every other player who actually has some statistical data to analyze.
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Last Updated ( Friday, 12 February 2010 07:50 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 05 February 2010 00:48 |
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Earlier this week, my top 500 rankings and auction dollar values were published. If you missed the post, check it out here. The first comment was from Shai, who astutely asked what parameters the rankings were based on. Before I describe those, I want to really drill down how important it is to be aware of exactly what a set of rankings is based on. Sometimes a change in league settings could have a dramatic effect on a player's value. Whether you add or subtract a scoring category, teams in your league or change your roster composition, everything you do is going to alter a player's worth. As a result, I would probably suggest completely ignoring a set of rankings if the settings they are based on are not the exact same as your league.
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Last Updated ( Friday, 05 February 2010 07:38 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 29 January 2010 15:52 |
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Patrick and I have discussed the issue of ADPs many times in the past. We typically do not disagree on much, but this is one thing we do have a difference of opinion on. While Pat makes some good points on why ADP is flawed, I think he is missing the point on why it could be so useful, despite alluding to it at the end of his article.
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Last Updated ( Friday, 29 January 2010 16:41 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 22 January 2010 00:23 |
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Carlos Gonzalez made quite an impression in his debut with the Rockies last season. His .284/.353/.525 line in 278 at-bats, which included 13 home runs and even 16 steals, helped to erase memories of his poor rookie performance with the Athletics in 2008. Combined with his previous top prospect status, there is no doubt that fantasy owners are drooling over his potential contributions over a full season.
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Last Updated ( Friday, 22 January 2010 08:16 )
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Written by Mike Podhorzer
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Friday, 15 January 2010 00:00 |
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Last week, I took an in-depth look at how the move from SAFECO Field to Fenway Park would affect Adrian Beltre's offensive performance. This week, I turn my attention to the man departing Fenway Park for the bight lights of New York City, Jason Bay. As I mentioned on a recent episode of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable, the knee-jerk reaction by most is that Bay's performance will suffer moving into a park that is perceived to heavily favor the pitcher and depress power. Let us dive into the park factors and try to figure out exactly how Bay might be affected. Like last week, I will look at Baseball HQ's three-year park factors. However, I will not be using Stat Corner data since they do not have any factors calculated for Citi Field. Therefore, I will be using ESPN's 2009 park factors instead.
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Last Updated ( Friday, 15 January 2010 07:38 )
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