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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Tuesday, 16 March 2010 00:00 |
 Despite performing as a top 20 outfielder in 2009 the fantasy community is skeptical about Johnny Damon this season. Most are predicting diminished power, citing the move from the friendly confines of the House that New York Taxpayers Built to Comerica Park. Stadium issues aside, by many measures Damon's power peaked in 2009. At age 35 he tied his career high in home runs. He set career highs in ISO and HR/FB. He hit the most doubles in a season since 2000. His fly ball rate was 42.3% compared to a career average of 35.0%. Even without a new home, the smart money would be on Damon's power ebbing.
The 2009 home/road splits show a vast gap in Damon's home run capabilities.
| |
PA |
HR |
ISO |
HR/FB |
FB% |
2B |
| Home |
318 |
17 |
.254 |
16.5% |
45.8% |
18 |
| Road |
308 |
7 |
.162 |
8.0% |
38.8% |
18 |
 The fly ball rates suggest he may have altered his approach in home games to take advantage of the short porch. This bears watching, as a return to the numbers he showed in Boston (31.6% - 34.0%) would severely limit his chances at exceeding 20 HR again. The fact that his doubles stayed constant indicates a definite reduction in overall power outside New York.
Still, it would be inappropriate to simply predict his stats going forward off what he displayed on the road last year. Unless the stadium is exceptionally inhospitable for batters most perform at least slightly better in whatever park they call home. Also, even falling to a .162 ISO would not be the death knell for home runs. Nick Markakis (.160) and Kevin Kouzmanoff (.164) each hit 18. Assuming slightly better performance, Alfonso Soriano (.182) and Bengie Molina (.177) hit 20 in about 520 plate appearances apiece.
By the raw numbers, New Yankee Stadium was the easiest park to hit a home run in last year. Comerica was below neutral, at #18. This broke a two-year run of appearing in the top ten, however in 2006 it was a lowly 26th. The Bill James Handbook breaks it down for lefties and righties. It rates New York as 120 for lefties and Comerica (based on the last three years) as 96. Doing the math very simply leads to a projection of 19.6 home runs.
Damon fits the profile of a hitter who benefited more than average from New Yankee Stadium. His Hittracker scatter plot shows all his home runs landed to the right of second base, most between straightaway right field and the foul line. Fangraphs goes deeper and provides context: "Damon’s HR distribution since 2002 breaks down as follows: one to left field, three to center and 129 to right field. About 97 percent of Damon’s dingers have been hit to the pull side over that time frame. Last year, AL batters hit 52.3 percent of their home runs to the pull field." If he used the area of the park most susceptible to home runs Damon could have been boosted more than the average lefty. Hittracker estimates that of his 17 Yankee Stadium home runs 6 would have gone over the fence in less than 15 major league parks. That is a significant amount, but taking all of those off his ledger still leaves Damon with 18 home runs.
The projection systems are not ready to say Damon's home runs will fall off a cliff. Each of the major ones pegs him for 16 or 17. Perhaps the most pessimistic is ZiPS, which anticipates 16, but has not been updated since he signed with Detroit. Mike Podhorzer forecasts 17 HR with a 10% HR/FB and 37% fly ball rate.
Statistically, if Damon keeps his fly ball rate above his career average it is very possible he hits 20 home runs again. The permanent move to left field may allow him to sacrifice some mobility for strength. With an ADP of 125 (41st OF) the price is about right, especially if balanced production will fit the fantasy team. Drafters should be cautious, however, because the risk of collapse is high. Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez are being drafted just before and offer far more upside. Damon should be considered a fallback to those two.
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Last Updated ( Monday, 15 March 2010 15:37 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Tuesday, 09 March 2010 00:00 |
In 2009 Hunter Pence took steps forward, yet he is being discounted in 2010 drafts. His ADP is generally 12-15 spots lower than it was last year (depending on the site). It is a markdown that owners should take advantage of because Pence improved his plate discipline while maintaining all his other batting skills.
 Upon his callup in 2007 Pence emerged quickly as an offensive force. His efforts were somewhat overshadowed by Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki but Pence was a very solid Rookie of the Year candidate. He did not appear out of nowhere, however. He was a second round (64th) pick in 2004. Every year in the Houston system Baseball America ranked him among the organization's top ten prospects. He earned the team's top spot in 2007 as well as the 38th in baseball. John Sickels never graded Pence below a B, for 2007 he escalated to an A- and 11th best hitter in the minors. He participated in the All Star Weekend Futures Game in 2006.
His major league track record shows an all-category producer. He is slightly deficient in the statistics that are the most heavily context-dependent (Runs, RBI). He turns 27 on April 13 and with two and two thirds big league seasons under his belt is a prime contender to break out.
Pence made his biggest improvements in plate discipline in 2009. It was a large reason his batting average improved from .269 to .282. All the underlying statistics point to a true refinement, the results support each other.
| |
BB% |
K% |
BB/K |
Oswing% |
Ocontact% |
Zcontact% |
| 2007 |
5.4% |
20.8% |
0.27 |
29.8% |
52.1% |
85.1% |
| 2008 |
6.2% |
20.8% |
0.32 |
31.1% |
55.3% |
86.1% |
| 2009 |
9.0% |
18.6% |
0.53 |
26.6% |
60.1% |
83.4% |
2009 brought Pence's walk rate near where it was in his Double-A and Triple-A seasons. His Oswing% was close to league average after being significantly higher in his first two years. With every other contact indicator trending up the dip in his zone contact is a slight surprise. If that can rebound to 85-86% the strikeout rate will continue to decrease. Most recognized that Pence's .322 average in 2007 was bolstered by an unsustainable .377 BABIP. The past two years his BABIP has been .301 and .308. There is no reason to expect him to hit below .280.
Pence definitely has ground ball tendencies as a hitter, his GB/FB is consistently in the highest 20% of batters. His HR/FB has also been very steady. At 14.9-16.0% each year he will continue to hit over 20 home runs. His home park assists him, it has profiled as better than neutral for homers the last three seasons.
Pence is willing to run, but his success rates leave something to be desired. Combining the last two years he has 25 steals on 46 attempts (54%). It is reasonable to think baserunning skill should improve with experience. Projecting him for a 75% success rate (essentially the MLB average) gets Pence very close to twenty steals if he keeps running at his current pace.
There is no doubt the Astros' weak offenses have prevented Pence from driving in more runs. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference we see that Pence is consistently presented with fewer runners on base than the average hitter. Despite this he was still able to exceed expectations, again, of the average hitter. Being better than the major league average hitter gives Pence a greater chance of knocking in runners in any situation.
In 2009 he was presented with 20 fewer runners on than the average hitter, and fell one RBI short of the expected production. The interesting note is of the 20 "missing" runners, 19 projected to have been on third base. While Pence may not be able to hope for an abundance of runners on, he can expect that facet to equalize. In short, Mike Podhorzer's projection of 85 RBI is spot on.
Another of Pence's quirks is the way pitchers choose to attack him. In 2009 he saw fastballs at the fifth-lowest rate among all hitters. In 2008 was the only batter to see more off-speed pitches than fastballs. According to the Fangraphs data, Pence made vast improvements against most off-speed offerings in 2009, changeups being the only exception. The fewer holes he presents the better it bodes for his future.
Do you agree? Is Pence primed to take another step forward in 2010?
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 09 March 2010 07:27 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Tuesday, 02 March 2010 00:00 |
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These times of year prospect lists are all the rage. Baseball America's was released last week, and was anticipated to the extent that the site crashed for a time. Not to be lost in the hysteria are the players with enough MLB service time to disqualify them from such rankings. Last year Travis Snider, Kyle Blanks, and Matt LaPorta ranked among the best hitting prospects but have not yet solidified their major league batting skills. They offer power potential and will come cheap this year. The risks include the weak offenses they all project to be in and small major league sample sizes. If inclined to speculate, which player offers the best chance at breaking through in 2010?
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Last Updated ( Monday, 01 March 2010 21:40 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Wednesday, 24 February 2010 00:00 |
 What a difference a year makes. Entering 2009 there were widespread concerns that Adam Lind did not bring enough to the table to be a full-time player. He had a good but not great prospect pedigree, breaking into Baseball America's top 100 in just one year, at #39. His strongest skill was hitting for average, the power numbers were on the decline in 2007 and 2008. Last year's Baseball Prospectus warned he has "limited power potential (his ISOs aren't solid for a corner)" and "plate approach in the bigs seems to be an issue." John Sickels wrote "I see a guy who could still turn out to be a really good hitter, but who isn't quite there yet and may never get there."
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 23 February 2010 19:34 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Tuesday, 23 February 2010 00:00 |
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David Price, Clay Buchholz, Homer Bailey, and Rick Porcello are all counting on breaking camp in a major league rotation and staying there for the year. These four pitchers are not rookies, but not veterans either. They are still looking for their "sea legs" in the bigs. Buchholz and Bailey in particular have stayed longer in Triple-A than planned. Their prospect pedigrees suggest all have a high ceiling, but they are works in progress. Owners drafting them are counting on better numbers than they delivered last year.
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Last Updated ( Monday, 22 February 2010 17:19 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Wednesday, 17 February 2010 00:00 |
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This could be considered a companion piece to yesterday's Just in Need of a Job because the inspiration was the same - pore through the most current depth charts and see who has the most value among the non-starters. Backup catchers can be safely ignored in most leagues, but in NFBC style (15 teams, 30 players) or deeper mixed, or single leagues a few will be rostered. It comes down to a question of strategy. Is it better to spend a premium price on a top catcher, given the risks in getting consistent year-to-year production out of anyone at the position? Is is better to spend a negligible price instead but risk getting negative value from a starting player? For those taking the latter option, these catchers are recommended.
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 17 February 2010 09:30 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Tuesday, 16 February 2010 00:00 |
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Spring Training facilities in Florida and Arizona are opening their doors. The Opening Day Countdown on our homepage is under 50. Most teams have a strong idea of the players that will comprise their starting nine. In many fantasy leagues there is little value in owning a reserve player, but if these six receive regular playing time they can be even mixed league viable. If they do not warrant being drafted in your league, have them on your watch list.
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 16 February 2010 08:09 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Tuesday, 09 February 2010 00:00 |
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For 2010 any list of players will rank Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann as the top tier at the catcher position, and there is a long drop to number four. With Mauer blowing every other player away last year he is entrenched in the top spot. Martinez and McCann have jostled back and forth over the past few seasons in terms of their overall value. Martinez had the better year in 2009, thus he is valued higher in drafts. Is it deserved or do the stats point to another reversal in position?
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 09 February 2010 07:33 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Monday, 01 February 2010 13:08 |
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Acknowledging that fantasy baseball preparation is in full swing the staff of ESPN recently conducted a 10-team, 25-round mock draft. The guys over at the Worldwide Leader get panned a bit for being too mainstream and catering to the casual player, but there is a good chance your competition reads at least some of the work coming through Bristol, CT. Also, given how slow the Mock Draft Central rankings are to change, these results are more indicative of the value of many players.
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 02 February 2010 07:45 )
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Written by Chuck Anderson
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Tuesday, 26 January 2010 00:00 |
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Consider this a companion piece to last week's look at some of the "power-hitting" shortstops available in the middle to later portion of drafts. Those looking for stolen bases will be focused on Elvis Andrus, Alcides Escobar, and Everth Cabrera. All three lack home run power, and hitting primarily at the bottom of the order will repress their runs scored and RBI totals. They will provide steals, however, and they could all surpass 35, a number which no shortstop reached in 2009.
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 26 January 2010 07:40 )
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